Polish parliament passes a new law on average every two days, uninterrupted for 35 years. Introducing the principle of one in, one out as a condition for the president's approval of a bill could strengthen his political position, while at the same time being an attractive, non-partisan and pro-development proposition for voters outside the so-called hard-line electorate.
After a brief pause, the presidential election sprint begins on January 7th. Political, geopolitical and economic contexts influence Poland's development, even though it is difficult to infer this from the campaign and post-election plans of the candidates. The year 2025 is one that we can describe as a watershed year. Conditions for economic growth will become increasingly difficult. When democratic institutions in other countries are weakened, Poland can win a development bonus by strengthening the quality of its legal system, among other things. And what is the international context?
In the US, Donald Trump is making a comeback. Richer with the experience of his first presidency, divested of the need to run for re-election, strengthened by the Supreme Court ruling limiting presidential accountability. His influence on the US and the world will be greater than in his first term.
In Germany, the election may bring a very strong turn to the right, up to the neo-Nazi AFD. The elections in Romania will be an important test of the effectiveness of the protection of electoral sovereignty in Europe. In France, pressure is mounting on President Macron to leave before his term expires.
In Latin America, Brazil faced the dilemma of “life after Lula,” whose health is poor. The issue is not trivial, given the revealed plans for a failed coup by the Bolsonaro administration. Mexico's failure to deal with drug mafia violence threatens - unidentified for now in form - US intervention. Argentina is bouncing back, but already half the population lives below the poverty line.
Asia is grappling with China's economic slowdown, which could worsen after the US imposes tariffs. The Philippines is balancing - again - on the brink of authoritarian rule, including death threats between the president and vice president. Democracy in South Korea has survived in large part due to the ineptitude of putschists. In Indonesia, President Subianto has proposed abolishing local elections.
Geopolitics is overlaid with economics. The European economy grew at a rate of 0.9% in 2024. Poland - with a growth rate of 3.4-3.7% - has a chance to once again be the fastest growing economy in the EU. Continuing this growth will face two major challenges. The first is another large budget deficit and the high and rising cost of debt service, which I wrote about in December 2024. The second challenge is the stagnant German economy, which shrank by 0.1% in 2024. The projected growth of Poland's largest trading partner in 2025 is only 0.2%.
In this context, we will be electing the President of Poland. The strength of the economy determines international standing as well as, to some extent, the strength of support for democracy. What can the president do to help Poland's development in a systemic and continuous way? The situation abroad is largely beyond our control. However, it is different with the institutional state inside the country.
Since the beginning of the Third Republic, the Sejm (lower chamber of Polish parliament - equivalent of the US Congress) has passed more than 6,000 laws, including almost 1,700 in the last 10 years. The average is 172 laws year after year, for 35 years. One law every two days - including weekends, vacations and vacations. The growing number of laws is not coupled with the removal of laws that have long since expired, or should have been temporary (e.g., five-year) acts from the beginning.
The new president can use his prerogatives in a positive way. A condition for the approval of laws passed by the Sejm could be the removal of one obsolete piece of legislation according to the principle of one in, one out. Cleaning the law of obsolete provisions would strengthen the average quality of the law, improving the conditions for Poland's development. A non-partisan initiative, applied regardless of the political configuration, could meet with the support of voters outside the so-called hard-core electorate of a given candidate.