British Prime Minister Disraeli said there are three kinds of lies: lies, terrible lies and statistics. This oversimplification is not, despite appearances, a criticism of statistics. Disraeli has conceded that surveys and statistics are perfectly suited to manipulation in the hands of people inclined to do so. A group eager to take advantage of these opportunities are politicians. So how can we, without the time, and perhaps the detailed knowledge, evaluate on an ongoing basis the efficiency and quality of government in categories as diverse as the economic situation, education, quality of life or quality of the health care system? Three measures, outlined below, allow us to make just such an assessment without being manipulated by politicians.
Until the end of the 20th century - because of the role played by the mainstream media - a wide divergence of opinions and positions could coexist with little divergence on the facts. U.S. Senator Moynihan summed up this situation, writing: “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” The 21st century, with social media, the abolition of editorial control and the decline of public authority, has brought a diminished consensus on basic facts and data. This culminated in the 'alternative facts' referred to by US Presidential Advisor Conway.
How can we cope in evaluating the data presented by successive governments and opposition parties on the changing situation in the country, progress or regression in the health, education and economic systems? How - lacking time and education toward data analysis - can we at any given time get a reliable picture of what the situation in our country is like in the short, medium and long term?
First, it's crucial to understand that relative positioning is key when it comes to macro data. In other words, absolute progress or regression does not tell us much about the success or failure of a given government. The economy grew by 3% in a given year. Is that a good or bad result? If the economies around us have grown at a rate of 6%, it is a poor result, and if they have passed a 3% recession, it is a fantastic result.
Second, what matters is the overall and not the partial results. We know the GDP growth. What was inflation during this period? Including food and energy prices or not? By how much did debt and the cost of borrowing increase? Etc. etc. It is time-consuming to analyze all of the above information year after year and then compare it with numbers from the EU, OECD and data from around the world. At the same time, the multiplicity of metrics - with which we are inundated by politicians of both parties - can lead to the overall picture being lost. So what to base your own diagnosis of the situation on? How to form your own opinion, but on the basis of common facts?
Let's start with health. How do we assess such complex things as the quality of the health care system, the cleanliness of the air, the water, the quality of the food, the lifestyle, the stress level, etc.? There is no single measure that directly accounts for all these factors. However, there are indirect measures, holistically showing the situation of citizens in a country in all these dimensions. These measures are life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). To illustrate their usefulness, let's look at the impact of COVID on life expectancy in Poland and other countries. Instead of measures such as the number of deaths - vulnerable to manipulation if only because of the methodology of counting a case as a death due to the virus - let's look at how life expectancy has changed between 2019 and 2021 in Poland and Italy. In this way, we can see how the actions taken (e.g., lockdown disparities, inability to test for cancer, delays in performing surgeries, etc.) have affected overall life expectancy.
According to the World Bank's 2021 data. Poland ranks 62nd in life expectancy (first place is the best). At the same time, we rank 183rd (out of 201) in terms of the difference in life expectancy between men and women (8 years) - which is one of the worst results in the world. How did Poland fare during COVID relative to Italy, about which we could hear alarming news in the media? Italians lost an average of 8.5 months of life expectancy between 2019 and 2021 - ranking 82nd in terms of pandemic impact and response worldwide. Poland ranked 166th. Life expectancy fell in our country by 2.3 years (28 months). Only 35 countries had a worse score! Everyone can judge whether such an overall result is satisfactory. Similarly, we can analyze - in a reliable and at the same time simple way - life expectancy in good health and compare the quality and length of life in Poland and other countries in the region or the world.
And how to assess the quality of education? The best measure seems to be the PISA exam - which has been assessing for 24 years the quality of the general education system in terms of teaching math, reading comprehension, etc. Polish students - among 81 countries surveyed - ranked 9th in math and 11th in reading comprehension in the world in 2022. In the last decade, only 17 countries made bigger advancement in math performance and 16 in reading than Poland. What has been the impact of COVID and the response to the pandemic (school closures, quality and smoothness of the transition to remote learning, etc.)? Absolute math and reading scores deteriorated in almost all countries between 2018 and 2022. However, only 6 of the 81 countries surveyed scored a larger decline in math and 10 in reading comprehension than Poland. In other words, out of 81 countries surveyed, in terms of ability to provide students with the previous level of education in math and in reading comprehension, Poland was 74th and 70th respectively. These results show well - in a holistic way - the quality of the education system over time, and the impact of the various substitutions relatively to the changes introduced at the same time in other countries.
Health, education. And how to assess the wealth of the average citizen? Are we catching up with Germany faster or slower than the Czech Republic and Slovenia? Is the average level of wealth higher than in Greece or Italy? GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) is an overall measure that includes not only economic growth, but also the aforementioned changes in the prices of products, services, etc. By comparing this single indicator, we can see how we are doing compared to other countries in the short (last year), medium (5-10 years) and long (10-30 years) periods. According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2024 Poland rank 39th in the world and 18th in the EU in this regard. In 1980-1989, we ranked 50-54th in the world and 19th in the EU (taking into account the current member countries - to make the comparison meaningful). Thus, we got rich much faster than the rest of the world, faster than some of the “old EU members” (20 years ago, Poland's GDP per capita PPP was equal to 51% of the EU average, today it's 80%), but not fast enough to change our position in the ranking. An example of getting rich faster than others might be Ireland - ranked 39th in the world in 1989 and 2nd today.
Health, money, education. Three measures that allow comparison between countries in the best possible - which does not mean ideal - way are life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE), PISA results and GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP). Reporting on these three indicators should be part of the prime minister's annual exposé and expert debates analyzing ways to further improve the quality and length of life, education levels and wealth of Polish citizens. This would allow us to assess the overall state of affairs in our country in a way that is accessible to most citizens. Perhaps we would even come to a consensus on the facts and figures affecting each of us - strengthening the basis and quality of a public debate.
*Image source: Irving Geis’ cartoon for the front cover of the “How to lie with statistics” 9th edition